Përmbledhje

The future is a time when things will look differently than they do today. By this definition, the future might not happen for another 100 years if nothing changes. On the other hand, the future might come tomorrow if there is rapid change. We don't know much about the future, but we do know that it will be different from the present and that it will emerge from today's world. There are two different kinds of progress. Horizontal progress occurs from copying things that work. It's going from one to n, so that if you have a typewriter and then you build 100 more, you've achieved horizontal progress. Vertical progress is achieved by doing something wholly new. It means going from zero to one. This kind of progress is hard to imagine, because it's something that's never been done before. If you have a typewriter and then you build a word processor, you've achieved vertical progress. Globalization—taking things from one place and applying them everywhere else—is horizontal progress. Vertical progress comes from technological breakthroughs, and “technology,” by the way, doesnt just describe computers. Any new way of doing things can be called technology. Globalization and technology are two different kinds of progress that might or might not happen concurrently. You can have one type without the other, you can have both, or maybe neither of them. Between the two kinds, technology will be the defining force of the future. There's a tendency to imagine that we're nearing some sort of end state. Even the expression “developed world” implies that some countries have climbed the mountain and that “undeveloped” countries just need to catch up. Our technology isn't sustainable, however, especially if everyone else adopts it. We have limited resources and our environment can't endure the pollution that level of “development” would generate. Globalization without advances in technology would devastate the planet. At one time, people thought technology would continue to improve in all directions. We wouldn't have to work so many hours, we'd be riding in flying cars, we'd be taking vacations to the moon. The only area that's seen real vertical progress, however, is computer technology. Progress isn't a given; it doesn't happen automatically. We must first imagine and then create the world in which we want to live. New technology comes from startups. Big organizations lumber around uselessly, and individuals don't have the resources to create an entire industry. Small, agile groups foster innovation'